8540 N. Oracle Rd. Oro Valley, AZ 85704 Office: 520-918-5968 Toll-Free: 888-825-8251 ext. 5968 Fax: 520-989-6114 Brenda@BrendaOBrienTeam.com Tucson Homes & Tucson Real Estate Back to Home Page

Brenda's 2011 Year End
Tucson Housing Market Report

2011 Was a "Turning Point" year in the Tucson Real Estate Market

We sold more homes in 2011: Sales in 2011 were choppy. we had 2 of our slowest months in the last few years but we also had our highest production month since back in 2005. All in all we ended up with 75 sales in 2011 which is 5 more than in 2010 so it was a very successful year.

The mood of the country changed in 2011 Instead of the usual doom and gloom, the majority of the media and most of the general public have switched to cautious optimism. We are seeing more and more positive media reports on both the economy & the housing market. We try to post a couple of the most current reports each month in our monthly report. We have found that folks are really interested in those and we get several comments a month on them.

Lending requirements begin to ease We are seeing small but significant easing in the underlying lending requirements. For example, The Loan To Value (LTV) limits have loosened slightly recently and we are now seeing Jumbo loans available again. The documentation required is still insane and the underwriting process is still very intense but we expect to see a "slight" easing in both these area's in 2012.

We believe the market has now turned While the year over year data still indicate declining values in average sales prices the underlying statistics show a different story. Month over month indices are now showing small but regular month over month increases in average sales prices. The national economy is improving in almost all of the leading indicators. The national unemployment rate is declining and here in Arizona we have a lower unemployment rate than the national average.

2012 will be a Good Year! We expect 2012 will be an excellent year here in Tucson. We expect the year over year price declines to reverse this year (probably 4th quarter) and begin showing small but important year over year Price Increases. We expect the listing inventory remain stable at or just below 5,000 units which is a healthy level. We do expect to see a continuing influx of "distressed properties" entering the market, however there is now a strong "investor interest" and there is more than enough buying interest to absorb these properties.

All Aboard! This Train's Leaving the Station This market has already started up. Get on board now and enjoy the ride. It's not going to be a fast and furious ride, but it's going to be a good long steady ride with lots of interesting scenery along the way.

The Tucson Multiple Listing Service has released their Year End Report for 2011 and the information it presents is quite interesting if you're into statistics.

"Improving Underlying Statistics" Key year end statistics for 2011 show 13,418 total units sold, an increase of 1,616 units over 2010, Active Listings decreased from 6,859 in 2010 to 4,911 in 2011. Even as prices declined sellers were obtaining 94.42% of the asking price at the end of 2011 (virtually unchanged from 2010. The only negative is that Average Sales Prices Declined from $189,352 in 2010 to $163,527 in 2011.

Tucson Home Sales Volume: The Volume (total dollars) of sales decreased from $2.234 Billion in 2010 to $2.194 Billion in 2011. This is due almost entirely to the mass of distressed properties that are clearing out of the system. We expect to see an increase in total sales volume in 2012.

Tucson Home Sales Units: Total units sold for 2011 were 13,418 an increase of 1,616 more homes sold than in 2010. It is obvious that early buyers are in the market now. This trend will continue as more and more people realize the bottom is past us.

Tucson Average Sale Price (all residential types): Decreased by $25,825 in 2011. This will be the last significant decrease in year over year sales prices in this market we will see in this cycle. We expect to see an improvement in this statistic in 2012.

Tucson Average Days on Market: Days on market (DOM) is actually tracked 2 ways here. There is the "Current" DOM" which reflects the "Current Listing". Then there is the "Cumulative DOM" which reflects the current listing plus any prior listings for the property that are basically the same effort to sell this home in recent history.

For example; if a home was listed on January 1, then withdrawn on January 30 and re-listed on February 1 and it is now February 15, the current DOM is 15 while the Cumulative DOM is 45. For the purposes of this report we track Cumulative DOM. 2010 DOM was 121, In 2011 DOM decreased to 107.

It's all Realtor Politics, but it's misleading & confusing for buyers. We believe this data should be fully transparent & disclosed to all parties. We believe the MLS should only use the cumulative Days On Market data as it truly reflects how long the home has been for sale.

As we review this data from the Tucson Multiple Listing service we can draw some quick conclusions from these 2011 Tucson home sales statistics:

Prices were down across the board again in 2011. The economy is now definitely improving, mainstream media is mostly focusing on the campaigns and the candidates are mainly focusing on the economy. Expect to see continuing media reporting on the improving economy throughout the year. The public is not fully on board with the economic improvements yet but should be by the end of the year. As public confidence improves, so to will the real estate markets.

Inventory Dropped Dramatically in 2011. Inventory levels reached the lowest levels since all this began. In late 2011 inventory had declined to levels not seen in 10 years. Distressed inventory will continue to enter the market for awhile yet, but we are now absorbing incoming inventory faster than it is coming on line. We expect inventory to stay near the 5,000 unit mark for the rest of 2012.

Interest rates holding steady. We predicted that interest rates would rise in 2011 and they did not. We now expect to see interest rates stable to slightly higher in 2012 with rates beginning to climb after the 2011 elections. During 2013 we expect to see significant interest rate increases as inflationary pressures build.

The 2011 Year End Tucson Market Report below will give you a detailed look inside the 2011 Tucson Housing Market.

2011 (Year in Review) Tucson Multiple Listing Service Report

Questions about current Tucson Housing Market Conditions?
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